The Healthiest Housing Markets for 2009

The Healthiest Housing Markets for 2009
Builder, in conjunction with Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, debuts its metric for determining markets with the best and least potential.
By: Boyce Thompson

With most economists and builders expecting a national market decline this year, this may not seem like the best time to be selecting the "healthiest" markets in the country. Virtually every market was down last year. But a close look at the numbers reveals that some markets have way outperformed others during the last four years and are likely to continue to do so this year.

When the housing market stages its official recovery, the markets listed on the following pages are likely to lead the parade. It may take a year or more for the weakest markets--where burgeoning foreclosure sales are still pounding new home values, making building and selling new homes an exercise in futility-- to finally stage a turnaround. We’ll present that list next week.

The healthiest markets have many things in common. Most of them are great places to live, either close to the ocean, mountains, or major universities. Most of them didn’t have a huge run-up in prices during the boom and aren’t experiencing rampant deflation during the bust.

To compile these lists, we analyzed the top 75 housing markets in the country. We ranked them based on population trends and job growth, perennial drivers of housing demand. We also examined what’s happened with home prices; many of the healthiest markets have managed to hold the line on home values. And finally, we considered the rate building permits, which may be the single best ongoing indicator of builder confidence in a market. We combined all these metrics to produce a score for each market. Here are the top 15, in reverse order.

15. Myrtle Beach, S.C.
2008 total building permits: 3,211

Though permit activity dropped sharply last year, Myrtle Beach remains one of the hottest markets in the country, especially when you analyze the number of permits pulled per resident. Only 263,287 people live in the Myrtle Beach metro area, which until recently had been growing its population by nearly 5 percent a year. That means builders pulled one permit for every 82 residents. A steady influx of people, many of them retirees, are drawn by close proximity to the ocean and 117 golf courses at last count. That has helped keep home prices steady; they fell only 10 percent last year to a very affordable $174,800. Most of the home building is split between Brunswick and New Hanover counties. Jobs are dependent on the tourist industry, though, and the metro area was rocked last year when a $400 million rock-and-roll themed amusement part, Hard Rock Park, opened and then filed for bankruptcy. Myrtle Beach added jobs last year, but as of December employment was decreasing at a 4.2 percent rate compared to a year earlier.

14. Wilmington, N.C.
2008 total building permits: 3,551

Wilmington has the second highest ratio of permits pulled per resident, behind only Myrtle Beach. The population here, 352,919 by Census estimates, has been growing at a 4 percent annual rate for the last five years, well above the national average. Primary residents are drawn by a four-season climate, close proximity to Atlantic beaches, and affordable housing. Median home prices, at $198,700, are just about the national average. The area gave back 1,000 jobs last year, after gaining 19,000 the previous three years. Wilmington has had a 60 percent decline in permit activity since 2005, around the national average, but its track record for population growth helps it make this list.

13. Charlotte, N.C.
2008 total building permits: 12,231

People and businesses must love Charlotte, because they are moving there at a high rate. The metro area of 1.74 million has grown its residents by 4 percent annually over the last five years, one of the highest rates in the country. They are drawn by relatively affordable housing for the east coast—median home prices are only $210,900, and they’ve only "corrected" downward by only 4.2 percent in the last year. A strong fourth quarter helped Charlotte record 12,231 permits last year, only a 44 percent decline since 2005. Charlotte’s strength relative to other markets led the investment banking firm UBS to predict last year that it would be one of the first markets to recover from the housing downturn. Charlotte is still a single-family market, with 62 percent of the residential activity in stand-alone homes. The job market in this banking hub contracted last year, after growing 3 to 5 percent annually the previous three years.

12. Denver, Col. 2008 total building permits: 8,800

Denver has been all over the home building news of late, with Beazer and Centex leaving town, then Village Homes of Colorado declaring bankruptcy. But the market hasn’t been hit as hard by the home building recession as other Western markets, in part because it didn’t experience rampant price appreciation during the boom. That’s partly because there’s lots of land available to develop in Denver. The median price of an existing home here was still an affordable $225,100 in the third quarter of last year, down only 11.4 percent in the last year (through 3Q 08). Denver enjoys one of the highest population growth rates in the country--2 percent annually for each of the last five years. Builders pulled 8,800 permits in Denver last year, down from 20,864 in 2005, a percentage decline that’s close to the national average. Denver is buoyed by a strong commercial real estate market.

11. Nashville, Tenn. 2008 total building permits: 8,142

Nashville, the 20th largest home building market, operated under the radar of the national housing boom. It didn’t ramp up wildly during the boom years, and it’s not contracting viciously during the bust. Median home prices remain an affordable $152,100, propped up by a growing job base. Eighty percent of the residential construction is single-family. Some of the market’s resilience stems from above-average population growth of about 2.3 percent a year. Back in the day, 2005, Nashville accounted for 16,654 permits; it now runs at about half that level. But that’s a better performance than most major markets.

10. Washington DC 2008 total building permits: 11,693

Washington D.C. showed signs last summer that it might be emerging from the downturn, then it turned south again. Even so, the area produces a ton of jobs—an estimated 35,000 in the last year—that fuel a vibrant housing market, the 11th largest in the country. Many of the jobs stem from contracts with the federal government. Washington D.C. remains a relatively unaffordable place to live, with a median home price of $332,700 in the third quarter of last year. But values have fallen only 24 percent in the last year in part because the population continues to grow—an average of 1 percent annually over the last five years. Home building patterns have changed dramatically in the nation’s capital with builders mothballing subdivisions well beyond the beltway and focusing on infill opportunities. The region remains one of the worst in the nation for commuters.

9. Fayetteville, Ark. 2008 total building permits: 2,989

Fayetteville has made some important lists in recent years. Located in the foothills of the Ozarks and within an easy drive of Wal-Mart’s corporate headquarters, it has recently been named one of the best places to live (by Kiplinger) and to do business (by Inc.). Employment, which had been strongly positive since 2005, dropped somewhat in the fourth quarter of last year. Recent layoffs at Wal-Mart’s corporate office sent tremors through the market. But several Fortune 500 companies that sell products to Wal-Mart have established offices here, and they have helped Fayetteville achieve one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter. The University of Arkansas is also located in Fayetteville, and it has helped attract start-up businesses. Residents are drawn by an affordable housing stock; median prices average only $139,400, below the national average, and they’ve lost only 2.4 percent of their value in the last year. Builders pulled only 2,989 residential permits last year, down from 7, 449 in 2005.

8. Indianapolis, Ind. 2008 total building permits: 7,004

Builders are still pulling permits at a relatively healthy rate in Indianapolis, despite a virtually flat job market. Unlike other major markets that have become multifamily-oriented, single family still accounts for two-thirds of home building activity. Ultra-affordable housing accounts for some of the activity—the median price of a home here is only $117,900, making it one of the most affordable markets in the country. As a result, home prices have declined only 4.5 percent in the last year. At the top of the market in 2005, builders in Indianapolis took down 15,619 permits, so activity is down 55 percent, slightly better than the national average. Unfortunately, the relative health of the market wasn’t enough to keep Davis Homes, one of the area’s largest private builders, from going out of business last year.

7. Seattle, Wash. 2008 total building permits: 13,021

Seattle, a city of 3.4 million people, last year weighed in as the eighth largest home building market. Residential construction activity here, as measured by permits, is off only 50 percent since 2005, much better than most markets. Seattle has steadily transitioned during the last 10 years from an affordable to an upscale housing market, with the median price of an existing home reaching above $350,000. Even so, existing home prices fell only 11 percent in the last year. One of the secrets to Seattle’s success is that it has added lots of jobs in recent years; and held on to them last year. Some builders there have even stepped up their land buying in anticipation of a market recovery. As the city has become more urban, the share of single family to multifamily permits has reversed; multifamily now accounts for 58 percent of activity.

6. Raleigh, N.C. 2008 total building permits: 11,386

Another state capital with multiple universities, Raleigh was still adding jobs at a 1.9 percent annual rate though the third quarter of last year. With a population of more than 1 million, it also has one of the highest rates of population growth of any top metro market in the country over the last five years: nearly 5 percent annually. Though the price of a median home here, $221,900, is above the national average, it is well below other cities in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The metro area has added roughly 68,000 jobs since 2005, and employment held steady last year. With a glut of national builders in the market, locals such as Dixon Kirby have experimented with different looks and styles to keep sales alive.

5. Dallas, Texas 2008 total building permits: 26,145

In a year when permits declined 35 percent nationally, Dallas only experienced a 9 percent fall-off. With a population of 4.2 million, Dallas was the third largest home building market last year, as measured in permits pulled. Employers in Dallas, a popular place for corporate relocation and expansion, added 42,000 jobs last year, a growth rate of 2 percent. Existing home prices have held steady, falling a paltry 2.3 percent in the last year, Interestingly, the face of residential construction has changed dramatically in Dallas in recent years; 58 percent of the activity last year was in multifamily, compared to a five-year average of 23 percent. The relative stability of the market, though, wasn’t enough to prevent Wall Homes from filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. On the other hand, former Meritage co-CEO John Landon recently started a new Dallas-based home building company.

4. San Antonio, Texas 2008 total building permits: 10,261

San Antonio is another Texas market that is still adding jobs, about 15,000 last year. A city of more than 2 million people now, its population is also growing, at a 2.8 percent annual clip through the third quarter of last year. Existing home prices are barely declining in San Antonio, down only 1.8 percent in the last year, leaving the median price of an existing single-family home at an affordable $154,400, 25 percent below the national average of $200,500, according to the National Association of Realtors. The upper end of the housing market was hurt recently when AT&T announced it would be moving its corporate headquarters to Dallas.


3. Fort Worth, Texas 2008 Total Building Permits: 10,388

Fort Worth, always operating in the shadow of higher profile Dallas, nevertheless can currently claim to have a slightly healthier housing market, based on its employment growth, relatively strong permit activity, and inexpensive housing. Now the 14th largest home building market in the country, Ft. Worth’s builders pulled 10,388 permits last year, roughly two-thirds of them single-family. That may be half as many as 2005, but many other major markets showed much sharper drop-offs. The relative strength of the Fort Worth market in recent years stems from its ties to the oil and gas industries, which has fueled above-average job growth. The metro area added 17,300 jobs last year.


2. Austin, Texas 2008 Total Building Permits: 14,250

Nine years ago, during the tech bust, some builders felt that Austin was too crowded and left. The bloom is back on Austin’s yellow rose now; it moved up the leader board to become the sixth largest home building market last year. Job creation explains the move. While other markets lost employment, Austin added 17,400 jobs last year, 2.31 percent growth rate. It helps that Austin is home to both a major university, The University of Texas, and the state capital. Existing homes cost a little bit more in Austin than other Texas markets, roughly $190,900, but that’s still below the national average. Also, Austin is one of the few metro areas in the country where median prices actually rose in 2008--1.4 percent through the first three quarters of the year. Amazingly, Austin now generates more home building activity than Chicago, which has six times more people.

1. Houston, Texas 2008 Total Building Permits: 42,697
They like to do things big in Houston. Now the metro area, home to nearly 5.8 million people, can lay claim to being the largest home building market in the country, with 42,697 building permits. The market is still benefiting from an influx of population and jobs and rebuilding in the wake of Hurricane Ike. Employment rose 2.2 percent last year, representing the addition of an incredible 57,000 jobs. Home building activity in Houston has only fallen 31 percent since 2005. Also, existing home prices actually rose in Houston last year, 2.8 percent, to $160,200, still a very affordable level. Roughly one third of the home building action is in Harris County, followed by Houston proper and Fort Bend County. One of Houston’s largest builders, Royce Homes, shut down last year, and Kimball Hill, one of the biggest builders in Texas, closed its doors this year after it failed to find a buyer.

Obama throws $75 billion lifeline to homeowners

Obama throws $75 billion lifeline to homeowners

President Barack Obama threw a $75 billion lifeline to millions of Americans on the brink of foreclosure Wednesday, declaring an urgent need for drastic action — not only to save their homes but to keep the housing crisis "from wreaking even greater havoc" on the broader national economy.

The lending plan, a full $25 billion bigger than the administration had been suggesting, aims to prevent as many as 9 million homeowners from being evicted and to stabilize housing markets that are at the center of the ever-worsening U.S. recession.

Government support pledged to mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is being doubled as well, to $400 billion, as part of an effort to encourage them to refinance loans that are "under water" — those in which homes' market values have sunk below the amount the owners still owe.

"All of us are paying a price for this home mortgage crisis, and all of us will pay an even steeper price if we allow this crisis to continue to deepen," Obama said.

The new president, focusing closely on the economy, in his first month in office, rolled out the housing program one day after he was in Denver to sign his $787 billion emergency stimulus plan to revive the rest of the economy. And his administration is just now going over fresh requests for multiple billions in bailout cash from ailing automakers.

Wall Street has shown little confidence in the new steps, declining sharply on Tuesday before leveling off after Wednesday's announcement. The Dow Jones industrials rose 3 points for the day.

Success of the foreclosure rescue is far from certain.

The administration is loosening refinancing restrictions for many borrowers and providing incentives for lenders in hopes that the two sides will work together to modify loans. But no one is required to participate. The biggest players in the mortgage industry temporarily had halted foreclosures in advance of Obama's plan.

Complicating matters, investors in complex mortgage-linked securities, who make money based on interest payments, could still balk, especially those who hold second mortgages or home equity loans. Their approval would be needed to prevent many foreclosures.

"The obstacles have not gone away," said Bert Ely, a banking industry consultant in Alexandria, Va.

Another cautionary note came from John Courson, chief executive of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

"It seems to offer little help to borrowers whose loan exceeds their property value by more than 5 percent," he said, noting that that requirement would limit the plan's success in some of the hardest-hit areas in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona and parts of the East Coast.

Indeed, Obama himself said, "This plan will not save every home."

The goal is to lower many endangered homeowners' payments to no more than 31 percent of their income. But that depends on a high degree of cooperation by lenders who have been increasingly wary of new lending as the crisis has deepened.

Still, the Obama administration, after talking with mortgage investors, appears confident that it is providing the right mix of incentives and penalties to make sure mortgage companies take part. Obama said he backs legislation in Congress to allow bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of primary home loans — an idea ardently opposed by the lending industry.

"Taken together, the provisions of this plan will help us end this crisis and preserve, for millions of families, their stake in the American Dream," Obama said. Yet, he also added: "We must also acknowledge the limits of this plan."

He called on lenders, borrowers and the government "to step back and take responsibility" and said: "All of us must learn to live within our means again."

There's broad economic anxiety across the nation, an Associated Press-Gfk poll indicated.

Nearly three in four people say they know someone who has lost a job in the past six months as a result of the tough economic conditions, according to the poll, released Wednesday. And more than half say they worry about being able to pay their bills and about seeing their retirement investments decline. So far, Obama's job approval rating still is high, at 67 percent, and he is scoring strong marks for his handling of the economy.

The president unveiled his housing plan at a Phoenix-area high school in a state with one of the country's biggest foreclosure rates.

Nationally, Moody's Economy.com says that of the nearly 52 million U.S. homeowners with mortgages, about 13.8 million, or nearly 27 percent, owe more than their homes are worth after many months of declining prices.

How soon will the new plan show results?

"You'll start to see the effects quite quickly," Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told reporters in Phoenix, noting that rules governing the changes will be published March 4.

In theory, homeowners facing foreclosure or borrowers owing more on their homes than their mortgages are worth would have more opportunities to refinance their loans so that they have lower monthly payments. Lenders would voluntarily participate in the government programs.

The $75 billion Homeowner Stability Initiative would provide incentives to mortgage lenders to cut monthly payments in an effort to persuade them to help up to 4 million borrowers on the verge of foreclosure. The goal: cut monthly mortgage payments to sustainable levels, using money from the $700 billion financial industry bailout passed by Congress last fall.

Another part would specifically help people with dwellings whose market value has sunk below the principal still owed on the mortgages. Such mortgages have traditionally been almost impossible to refinance. But the White House said its program will help 4 million to 5 million families do just that — if their mortgages are owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

To boost confidence, the Treasury Department said it would double its support to the two mortgage giants that the government essentially took over last fall.

It said it would absorb up to $200 billion in losses at each company by using money Congress set aside last year and will continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities from them. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are projected to need a combined government subsidy of about $66 billion, well short of the new promise of up to $400 billion.

Obama emphasized that his plan focuses on helping families who have "played by the rules" stay in their homes.

But, he said, it will do nothing to help "the unscrupulous or irresponsible." He cited so-called speculators who took out risky loans on multiple properties to make money by selling them during the housing boom, lenders who took advantage of naive buyers by glossing over the fine print, and people who willingly bought homes that were way beyond their means.

"This plan will not save every home," Obama said.

Associated Press Writers Alan Zibel, Mark S. Smith, Jennifer Loven and Martin Crutsinger in Washington contributed to this report.